Airline Loyalty Program Devaluations: How to Protect Your Miles

Why Airlines Devalue Their Miles

Airline loyalty programs face an inherent long-term financial tension: they issue miles as a liability on their balance sheet (members earned miles that cost money when redeemed) while using those same miles as a short-term revenue tool (selling miles to credit card issuers generates immediate cash). As miles outstanding grow — driven by co-branded credit card partnerships that issue billions of miles annually — the liability pool expands. Devaluation is the mechanism by which airlines reduce the value of that liability. By requiring more miles for the same flight, they dilute the purchasing power of every mile in circulation without reducing the nominal count on member statements.

Delta SkyMiles was the first major U.S. program to abandon its award chart entirely in 2015, replacing fixed pricing with dynamic awards that fluctuate with cash demand. American AAdvantage followed in 2023, effectively ending the era of fixed chart pricing at both of the two largest U.S. carriers. United MileagePlus moved its own-metal awards to dynamic pricing while maintaining a partner award chart. The migration to dynamic pricing is a form of permanent devaluation — the price ceiling was removed, allowing peak-demand awards to require unlimited miles, while the floor only partially preserves off-peak value.

Chart-based devaluations happen as discrete events: an airline publishes a new award chart with higher prices effective in 30 to 90 days. British Airways Executive Club's Avios underwent significant devaluation in 2022, raising prices on many routes by 30 to 40%. Singapore KrisFlyer devalued in 2018 with price increases across long-haul categories. Aeroplan devalued mid-2022. These discrete events are the ones that generate outrage in the points community, but the slow erosion of value through dynamic pricing is often more damaging because it is invisible and gradual.

Historical Devaluations and Their Impact

United MileagePlus's 2014 shift from a distance-based chart to a revenue-based earning structure reduced miles earned on cheap tickets by 60 to 70%, making the program far less rewarding for discount fare travelers. Delta's 2015 move to dynamic redemptions, combined with its elimination of the published award chart, meant that the 50,000-mile roundtrip business class award to Europe effectively ceased to exist — replaced by awards ranging from 50,000 to 400,000+ miles depending on demand. A million SkyMiles held in 2014 was worth roughly $15,000 to $20,000 in redemption value; the same balance by 2020 might have extracted $7,000 to $10,000 at typical redemption rates.

American AAdvantage maintained its award chart longer than its major U.S. competitors, becoming the preferred program for many strategic redeemers through the early 2020s. The 2023 shift to dynamic pricing was a watershed for the points community — AAdvantage's last fixed-price redemption opportunity, such as the Cathay Pacific first class at 70,000 miles one-way, was available through early 2023. After the change, the same space might require 100,000 to 150,000 miles in peak periods. Travelers who had accumulated AAdvantage miles specifically for these chart-based sweet spots found their strategies invalidated.

International programs have not been immune. Qantas Frequent Flyer overhauled its chart in 2022, increasing prices for many partner redemptions. Etihad Guest changed its pricing structure multiple times in three years. Korean Air SKYPASS maintained a relatively stable chart but has reduced availability on partner carriers. The consistent pattern across devaluations is that the programs adjust the parameters of the awards — either raising prices, reducing partner availability, adding surcharges, or introducing expiration — rather than explicitly eliminating the redemption. The program technically still offers first class to Asia; it simply requires 60% more miles than before.

Protecting Your Miles from Devaluation

The most effective protection strategy is earning and burning: accumulate miles with an intended redemption in mind and redeem within 12 to 24 months of earning. Miles are a depreciating asset in an inflationary environment where airlines control the supply and price. Treating miles like a savings account — letting balances grow indefinitely in expectation of some future perfect use — exposes the entire balance to devaluation risk. Travelers who redeemed their United miles for ANA first class in 2022 captured full value. Those who waited and transferred in 2024 found award prices had increased.

Diversification across programs reduces concentration risk. Holding all your points in one program means a single devaluation wipes out the value of your entire strategic reserve. A portfolio spread across United MileagePlus, Air Canada Aeroplan, and Singapore KrisFlyer diversifies the devaluation risk — it is unlikely that all three programs devalue simultaneously in the same direction. Transferable points currencies (Chase, Amex, Capital One) held in their native form before transferring represent the ultimate diversification, since the transfer decision is made at the moment of redemption when the best program for the target award can be selected.

Monitor program news actively. Devaluations are typically announced 30 to 90 days in advance, providing a window to redeem at the current price before the new structure takes effect. Subscribing to award travel news sources — The Points Guy, View from the Wing, One Mile at a Time, Doctor of Credit — ensures early notification of announced changes. When a devaluation is announced affecting your primary program, evaluate immediately whether a targeted redemption before the change date is the right response. Some devaluations are severe enough to justify booking awards you might not take for six or twelve months simply to lock in the current price.

Programs Most Resistant to Devaluation

No program is permanently safe from devaluation, but some structural characteristics make programs more stable. Programs where miles are primarily earned from flying — rather than credit card spend — accumulate fewer miles outstanding per year and face less liability pressure. ANA Mileage Club, with limited Western credit card transfer partners, has a much smaller outstanding miles liability than Delta SkyMiles, which issues billions of miles annually through Amex partnerships. Fewer miles outstanding reduces the financial pressure to devalue.

Alliance-based programs with fixed charts and no co-branded cards in the U.S. market (Turkish Miles&Smiles, Avianca LifeMiles) maintain more stable pricing partly because their miles issuance is controlled. LifeMiles has devalued on several occasions, but the pricing of Star Alliance partner awards — including United and Lufthansa flights — remains well below what either carrier's own program charges. Turkish Miles&Smiles is similarly positioned: miles are harder to earn in large quantities, keeping the outstanding liability manageable and the incentive to devalue lower.

The most devaluation-resistant strategy remains program agnosticism through transferable points. By delaying the conversion to any specific airline currency until a redemption is imminent, you are always positioned to use whichever program offers the best value at that moment — whether it is the program you have historically used or a different program where value has concentrated following a competitor's devaluation. The transferable points meta-currency is the hedge against program-specific devaluation risk.