The Future of Electric and Hydrogen Aviation

Aviation accounts for approximately 2.5% of global CO2 emissions — a figure that, while smaller than road transport or power generation, has been growing as other sectors decarbonize more rapidly. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has committed the global airline industry to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, a pledge that requires nothing less than a fundamental transformation of how aircraft are powered. Three pathways are being pursued simultaneously: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), battery-electric propulsion, and hydrogen. Each has different timelines, different technical challenges, and different implications for airports.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel: The Near-Term Solution

Sustainable aviation fuel is the only decarbonization pathway available at scale today. SAF is a drop-in replacement for conventional jet fuel (Jet A-1), meaning it can be blended with or substituted for fossil-derived kerosene without modifications to existing aircraft engines, fuel systems, or airport fueling infrastructure. SAF can be produced from a variety of feedstocks: used cooking oil, agricultural waste, municipal solid waste, forest residues, and — at the frontier of the technology — directly from captured CO2 and green hydrogen (so-called e-fuels or power-to-liquid fuels).

The lifecycle carbon reduction of SAF compared to conventional jet fuel ranges from approximately 50% for waste-oil-derived HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) fuel to potentially over 90% for e-fuels produced with renewable electricity. Current aviation regulations permit SAF blending up to 50% with conventional fuel, though most flights using SAF today use blends of 1% to 5% due to limited supply.

Supply is the central constraint. Global SAF production in 2023 was approximately 600 million liters — less than 0.2% of total jet fuel consumption. The gap between current production and the quantities needed for meaningful decarbonization is enormous. IATA estimates that achieving net-zero by 2050 will require SAF to account for approximately 65% of total fuel consumption, implying production volumes hundreds of times current levels.

Airports are beginning to integrate SAF into their fuel supply chains. Los Angeles International (LAX) received its first regular SAF supply via the existing fuel pipeline from local refineries in 2023. Stockholm Arlanda (ARN) in Sweden mandates that a percentage of fuel uplifted at the airport must be SAF, backed by Swedish legislation. San Francisco International (SFO) has actively sought SAF supply agreements and encourages airlines to use SAF by publicizing their sustainability commitments.

Battery-Electric Aircraft

Battery-electric propulsion eliminates combustion entirely: an electric motor drives the propeller or fan, powered by a lithium-ion (or future-generation) battery. The advantages are compelling — zero direct emissions, dramatically lower noise, simpler mechanics with fewer moving parts, and potentially lower operating costs. The challenge is energy density: current lithium-ion batteries store approximately 250 Wh/kg (watt-hours per kilogram), compared to approximately 12,000 Wh/kg for jet fuel. Even accounting for the much higher efficiency of electric motors (90%+) versus jet engines (35-45%), the gap means that battery-electric aircraft are currently viable only for short ranges and small payloads.

Several companies are developing battery-electric aircraft for commercial service. Eviation's Alice, a nine-seat commuter aircraft with a range of approximately 440 nautical miles, completed its first flight in September 2022 and is targeting certification and entry into service in the mid-2020s. Heart Aerospace's ES-30, a 30-seat regional aircraft with a range of 200 kilometers on battery alone (extended to 400 kilometers with a hybrid turbogenerator), is targeting entry into service around 2028. Pipistrel (now part of Textron eAviation) has already certified the Velis Electro, a two-seat electric training aircraft, marking the first type certificate issued for an electric airplane.

Urban air mobility (UAM) represents the most immediate market for electric aviation. eVTOL aircraft — electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles designed as air taxis — are being developed by Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Lilium, Volocopter, and numerous others. These aircraft carry 4 to 6 passengers on trips of 20 to 80 kilometers, connecting city centers with airports or suburban destinations. Paris CDG is preparing vertiport infrastructure for eVTOL operations targeting the 2024 Olympics. LAX has partnered with Archer Aviation for an air taxi connection to downtown Los Angeles.

Airport Charging Infrastructure

Electric aircraft will require charging infrastructure at airports — a category of ground equipment that does not currently exist at commercial airports. The power requirements are substantial: charging a regional electric aircraft in a 30-minute turnaround window could require 1 to 3 MW of power per gate, comparable to the peak demand of a small commercial building. An airport operating 20 electric aircraft gates simultaneously might need 40 to 60 MW of dedicated charging capacity — a significant addition to the airport's overall electrical load.

Airports are beginning to plan for this future. Stockholm Arlanda (ARN), working with Heart Aerospace, has conducted studies on the electrical infrastructure needed to support regional electric aircraft operations. Several airports have installed charging stations for electric ground vehicles (tugs, baggage carts, buses) as a first step toward electrification, building experience with high-power charging in the airport environment.

Hydrogen-Powered Aircraft

Hydrogen offers a potential solution to the energy density limitations of batteries. Hydrogen can be used in aviation in two ways: burned in a modified gas turbine engine (hydrogen combustion) or converted to electricity in a fuel cell that powers electric motors. Hydrogen combustion produces water vapor and small amounts of NOx but no CO2. Fuel cells produce only water vapor and electricity, with zero combustion emissions.

Airbus's ZEROe program, announced in 2020, is the most prominent hydrogen aircraft initiative. Airbus has presented three concept designs: a turbofan configuration (120-200 seats, 3,700 km range), a turboprop (up to 100 seats, 1,800 km range), and a blended-wing-body design. All three use hydrogen as the primary fuel, stored in liquid form at minus 253 degrees Celsius in tanks located behind the rear pressure bulkhead of the fuselage. Airbus has set a target of 2035 for entry into service, contingent on technology maturation and airport infrastructure readiness.

Universal Hydrogen, a startup that closed operations in 2024 after its founder tragically died in an experimental aircraft crash, had been developing a modular hydrogen capsule system designed to simplify airport logistics — pre-filled hydrogen capsules would be loaded into the aircraft like intermodal cargo containers, eliminating the need for on-airport hydrogen production and liquefaction. While the company did not survive, the modular concept influenced industry thinking about how to solve the hydrogen logistics challenge.

Hydrogen Airport Infrastructure

The infrastructure requirements for hydrogen aviation are substantial and largely unprecedented. Liquid hydrogen must be produced (via electrolysis of water using renewable electricity, ideally), liquefied (cooled to minus 253 degrees Celsius, an energy-intensive process), stored in insulated cryogenic tanks, transported to the aircraft, and pumped into the aircraft's fuel tanks through specialized fueling equipment. None of this infrastructure currently exists at commercial airports.

London Heathrow (LHR) has commissioned engineering studies on hydrogen infrastructure and identified potential locations for hydrogen storage and production facilities on the airport perimeter. Paris CDG is planning a multi-modal hydrogen hub that could serve both airport ground vehicles and, eventually, hydrogen aircraft. In Japan, where the government has designated hydrogen as a strategic energy carrier, studies are underway at Narita (NRT) and Haneda (HND) for hydrogen fueling infrastructure.

Hybrid Approaches

Many industry analysts believe the near- and medium-term future of aviation decarbonization lies in hybrid approaches rather than any single technology. Hybrid-electric aircraft — using a combination of battery power and conventional turbine engines — could reduce fuel consumption by 30% to 50% on regional routes while operating within the constraints of current battery technology. The turbine engine provides power during climb (when energy demand is highest) and charges the battery during cruise, while the electric motor provides additional thrust during takeoff and climb.

Rolls-Royce and Airbus have tested hybrid-electric demonstrators, and several regional aircraft manufacturers are developing hybrid configurations. The advantage of the hybrid approach is that it requires minimal airport infrastructure changes — the aircraft still carries liquid fuel (potentially SAF) and does not need airport charging or hydrogen facilities.

The Timeline and the Reality

The timeline for these technologies varies dramatically. SAF is available today and can scale relatively quickly given sufficient investment and feedstock availability. Battery-electric aircraft for short routes (under 500 km) could enter commercial service by the late 2020s. Hydrogen-powered aircraft for medium-haul routes are at least a decade away from commercial service, and the airport infrastructure required to support them may take even longer to build.

For airports, the strategic challenge is preparing for a future that remains uncertain. Investing too early in hydrogen infrastructure that may not be needed for 15 years is costly; investing too late risks becoming unable to serve hydrogen aircraft when they arrive. The prudent approach — adopted by most major airports — is to reserve space and plan utility routing for future hydrogen facilities while investing now in electrical infrastructure for electric ground vehicles, battery charging, and SAF supply chain integration.

The decarbonization of aviation will not happen through a single breakthrough. It will require SAF, electric propulsion, hydrogen, operational efficiency improvements, and — for a transitional period — carbon offsets, all working together across different market segments and timescales. The airport of 2050 will fuel its aircraft with a mix of energy sources unimaginable to the engineers who designed the airports of 1950. The transition is underway, and every airport in the world will be affected by it.